Analysis and forecasting the accident mortality trends in the islamic republic of iran applying lee-carter model during the years 2006 to 2035

Objective: To predict the accident mortality trend in next two decades in Iran

Methods: The study population comprised all deaths recorded in the system of registration and classification of causes of death of Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran during the years 2006 to 2015. The information was collected via death certificate, burial permit, and reporting forms. To forecast the trends of causes-of-death, Lee Carter model was employed in a demographic package 18.1 of R software version 3.3.1

Results: Based on the results, the highest percentage of all causes of death from accidents [in unintentional accidents] goes to transport accidents, and most top intentional accidents belonged to intentional self-harm. The trends of unintentional accidents in the whole population and both sexes have reduced from 2006 to 2035, such that the rate has reduced from 62.2 in 2006 to 12.1 per 100 thousand populations in 2035. It is anticipated that the causes of death due to intentional accidents with the rate of 8.86 in 2006, will be 1.89 [per 100,000 population] in the year 2035

Conclusion: Accident mortalities have a significant role in the deaths of Iranian population; therefore, to reduce the impact of accident mortality on society, a precise approach is needed to monitor the trends as well as preventing measures and increasing the safety standards

Population and mortality profile in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 2006–2035

Background: The Islamic Republic of Iran has encountered demographic and epidemiological changes as a result of the transformation of health measures.

Aims: This study aimed to calculate the population and mortality in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the years 2006 to 2035.

Methods: We carried out a cross-sectional analytical–descriptive account. We calculated the age and sex structure of the Iranian population using census data as well as mathematical methods. The crude and causal death rates were calculated and their 20-year trend was predicted using the Lee–Carter model.

Results: In 2035, the age group 60 years and over will reach 17.6% of the total population. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases will be the biggest causes of an increase in the rate of death in the general population. The largest decline in cause of death is for unintentional injuries.

Conclusions: Noncommunicable diseases will increase as the aging population grows. Identification of their primary causal and risk factors can, therefore, contribute to prevention and control

Towards a holistic approach to healthy diet: evidence from Iranian health perception study

The aim of present study was to investigate the relation between the perception of population on healthy diet and lifestyle related behaviors. As part of national study on Iranian Health Perception, a cross-sectional study was carried out in Iran, 2010. A multistage sampling approach was applied to include a representative sample of population aged between 18 and 65 in the study. To collect data a designed questionnaire was administered. In all 27,883 individuals [50.4% women, 48.8% men] were included in the study. The mean age of participants was 34.6 years [SD = 12.8] and most were married [61%]. The findings indicated that Iranian population often pay attention to healthy diet [39.5%], never smoke [74.9%], sometimes were doing exercise [29.5%], felt happy to some extent [39.5%], often care about themselves [47.1%] and rated their health as good [54.5%]. Further analysis of the data showed that increased paying attention to healthy diet was associated with reduced smoking, more exercise, more self-care and happiness, and a better self-rated health status. The findings suggest that a healthy diet and other determinants of lifestyle are very integrated into each other. The efforts for changing any components of lifestyle can potentially change all individual related lifestyle behaviors. Indeed, one of effective strategies in fostering healthy diet is fostering other healthy lifestyles. This holistic approach might help decision-makers to design appropriate interventions in order to influence diet behaviors of people

Pre-hospital emergency medical services: the analysis of EMS ambulances equipment in Rasht city

Prehospital emergency is an important part of the health care system. The prerequisite for providing appropriate services in this sector is existence of the necessary equipment, particularly equipped ambulances that plays an important role in saving the patients' life who need emergency measures. Given the high incidence of traffic accidents and other emergencies, this study was concluded to investigate current status of medical equipment of prehospital EMS ambulances in Rasht and compare with Iranian standards. In this descriptive-analytical and functional study, 13 active ambulances of emergency medical services were studied in Rasht in 2013. Data were collected and studied due to the checklist of standard medical examination card of ambulances type B MOH [Ministry of Health] and the checklist of 4374 of relief vehicles and equipment of Iranian National Standards Organization. Researchers completed the checklists with reference to emergency medical centers in Rasht and observation of medical equipment and ambulances. Data were analyzed by using descriptive and inferential statistics appropriate. Overall, average medical equipment of EMS ambulances in Rasht was 66.5% and 64.8% respectively that had a significant difference with standards [p<0.05] according to standards of MOH and Iran Standard National organization. In addition, the average equipment regarding both standards was as follows: In the medical and diagnosis groups:80% and 82.4%; equipment of respiration/ventilation: 97%; injection/drugs: 73% and 58.4%; equipment of treatment-critical management: 65.3% and 55.7%; nursing care/ bandage 58.3% and 53.8% that have significant differences with Iran defined standards in all cases [p<0.05]. According to the results and both standards, about 84% of ambulances had all equipment related to the airway/ventilation management. According to the results, the best condition of medical equipment of EMS ambulances was related to equipment of airway/ventilation management. There was a significant deficiency in other equipment groups. The deficiencies of medical equipment of ambulances will reduce the efficiency of all the pre-hospital emergency medical services; therefore, it seems essential to reduce deficiencies and to achieve the national standards

[Comparative study of content and structural changes of Sphere project in common standards chapter]

Sphere project is the operational framework for the relief activities of humanitarian organizations during rapid response phase. It has been designed and determined based on humanitarian charter and minimum standards in disaster relief. However, this research has been done based on analysis of content and structural changes of Sphere [2004 and 2011 editions] and was compared with the common standards chapter. This systematic review has been done from 1990 to 2013. The search results were 370 articles and scientific texts; about 10 papers were selected as the related studies regarding to inclusion and exclusion criteria. Moreover, some articles extracted from evaluating references papers based on objectives of study. This study was conducted over two months by authors. The main reasons are included protection and safety principles for affected people, the necessity of development of humanitarian activities to improve and to modify the provisions of the humanitarian actions rules in recent years. Some issues are not included or pointed them out briefly such as justice, disaster prevention, environmental health issues and urban warfare. The change of "Minimum Standards common to all chapters" to "people and processes standards" and the structural change as well as content revision from eight common standards to six core standards have a major importance in new edition. According to the obtained results, the purpose of Sphere new edition is to update the qualitative and quantitative indicators and guidance notes not to change the qualitative standards or fundamental change. In the new revision, general structure and integrity of text have improved. "Minimum standards" chapter has been structured as "core standards". In delivery of disaster response services, particular attention must be paid to provide security as an important parameter in relief in addition to meet minimum basic needs

[Evaluation of schools structural seismic vulnerability and choosing of safe buildings for emergency shelter [a case study]]

In the case of occurring earthquake, education centers are classified into high vulnerable places because of existing high number of students, teachers and workers. These centers can be used as an emergency shelter after earthquake too. This study has been performed in one of neighborhoods in west of Tehran in order to evaluating the seismic structural vulnerability of education centers and choosing safe buildings for emergency shelters in earthquake. In this applied research study, RVS and GIS were used in four steps in order to evaluate the structural resistance of educational centers and distribution of secure training centers for emergency shelter in times of crisis respectively. Data was collected and analyzed by using SWOT. Despite being this neighborhood in the low-risk area of Tehran, low structural resistance of many educational centers, lack of design regulars and criteria make these centers vulnerable to disasters; therefore, some solutions must be found. Moreover, distribution of safe educational centers is necessary as the emergency shelters. SWOT analysis shows that the strategy situation is contingency. With regard to the importance of educational centers, the vulnerability and functional assessment before earthquake are necessary. Recommended strategies for reducing vulnerability have been classified into two static and dynamic groups

[Hospital safety index analysis in confronting disasters: a case study]

Hospitals have an important role in order to maintain and improve health and to function without interruption in emergency situations. Hospital Safety Index is one of the indicators that can help to determine the efficiency of hospitals in disasters situations. This study was done in order to assess the safety of one of the referral hospitals related to Social Security Organization in disasters in Tehran. In this applied study, a referral hospital in Tehran city was studied based on structural, nonstructural and functional factors by using WHO/PAHO standard checklist. According to the results, the final Safety Index score placed this hospital into C category of three categories of safety. It means that the lives and safety of occupants of this hospital deemed at risk during disasters. The Hospital Safety Index helps authorities to quickly determine where interventions can improve safety. The safety index is not only a tool for making technical assessments, but it provides a new approach to disaster prevention and mitigation for the health sector. Calculating the safety score allows hospital to establish maintenance and monitoring routines and look at actions to improve safety in the medium term. This quick overview will give decision makers a starting point for establishing priorities and reducing risk and vulnerability in healthcare facilities

[Social relationships and health: findings from the Iranian Health Perception Survey [IHPS]]

Objective [s]: To assess social relationships status oamong Iranians and find out its association with their health condition

Methods: It was a cross-sectional study of a sample of 27,883 general population of Iran aged 18 to 65 years. Social relationships were measured using a single item rated on a 5-point Lkert scale. Self-reported health also was measured by a similar question. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze the data

Results: Most participants indicated that they had good and very good social relationships. Gender, employment status, and income had significant association with social relationships. Negative assessment of health increased the risk of low social relationships up to 6.58 times and similarly negative assessment of very poor or poor social relationships increased the risk of lower health status up to 5.6 to 7.3 times respectively

Conclusion: The findings suggest that social relationships are associated with social factors such as income, gender and employment. Also social relationship has significant effect on public's health. Perhaps social relationships could be considered as a mediatory factor between social condition and health

[Feral cats and people’s health: a review of literature and a case study]

Objective [s]: The control of feral cat overpopulation is an important problem in many countries. The objectives of present study were to identify experiences of other countries, to identify urban ecosystem on animals [mice and feral cats], to understand the role of cats in environmental pollution and to study people believes about feral cats

Methods: This was a rapid review of the literature and a cross-sectional case study. The target group of the cross-sectional study consisted of the general population aged 18 and over living in Tehran, Iran. The sample was recruited through cluster sampling

Results: The details of review are presented in the article. Overall 9836 individuals [50.1% women and 49.9% men] participated in the study. The mean age of participants was 37.6 years [SD 15.1]. The related results of the ecosystem study showed that most people [49%] stated that population of cats have not changed in their residential area. The results of Pearson analysis showed that there were direct and positive correlation between populations of feral cats and population of mice in Tehran. The decline in population of mice was associated with decline of feral cat population and, vice versa [r= 0.206] [P>0.001]. The results also showed that the number of cats and mice decreased with existing suitable pickup of garbage, adequate street lighting services, existing gardening areas, near markets of fruits and vegetables and in urban areas with no building construction [P>0.001]. Furthermore the results showed that the people by own are the most important cause of environmental pollution in the city with spreading garbage [46.5%]. Most people [71.3%] believed that the feral cats have "very much" and "much" right to live in their city

Conclusion: The population of feral cats in Tehran is one of the important factors for controlling the mice population. Interventions in environmental conditions of mice population are indirectly effective to control the cats population. Public education of environmental cleanliness and improving quality of urban services has the main influences to minimize the role of feral cats in environmental pollution. It seems that feral cat overpopulation control should focus on followings: [a] in cities like Tehran, the elimination of feral cat colonies is not recommended because of mice overpopulation and the role of feral cats in urban animal ecosystem. The most human and scientific activities in the urban areas witch face to cat overpopulation are Trap-Neuter-Return [TNR] and Trap and Relocate [TR] to low population areas; [b] public education in order to minimize zoonotic disease transmission, [c] pet ownership education to prevent abandonment and importance of early sterilization and keeping cats indoors; [d] improvement the urban services like mice control program; [d] encourage to establish non-governmental groups and organizations, under the supervision of the related governmental agencies for attracting human and financial resources. Overall, one of the most important approaches for improving urban management of animal population is considering city as an ecological system. Therefore, the intervention relating to control of feral cat population should be based on scientific evidence and ethical principles

[Depression among the general population in Iran: Iranian health perception survey]

Objective[s): To collect data on self-reported depression among the general population in Iran and indicate its contributing factors

Methods: This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate their anxiety on a 5-point scale. The record of demographic and socioeconomic data included age, gender, education, marital status, employment, income, self-reported health and chronic diseases. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for contributing factors to self-reported depression

Results: In all 27,883 individuals took part in the study. The mean age of respondents was 32.7 [SD = 11.8) years. Overall 8.6% reported that they were very or very much depressed. The results obtained from logistic regression analysis showed that divorced [OR= 2.46] and wife dead [OR= 1.77], unemployed [OR= 1.45], lower income groups [OR =1.65], those with lower self-reported health [OR for lowest group=7.27], and having at least one chronic disease [OR=1.58], were more likely to suffer from depression

Conclusion: The findings indicated that there were inverse relationships between depression, marital status, income and self-reported health

[Happiness among Iranians: findings from the Iranian Health Perception Survey [IHPS]]

Objective[s]: As part of a study on health perception among Iranian people, the happiness with affected factors was assessed

Methods: This was a population-based study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate a 5-point happiness scale indicating their own present happiness status. The data were analyzed descriptively. In addition logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between independent variables and happiness

Results: In all 27,883 individuals took part in the study. The mean age of respondents was 32.7 [SD=11.8] years. Overall 39.3% rated their happiness as 'neither much/nor low', 35.4% as 'much" and 3% as "Not at all". The findings showed that in addition to some demographic variables such as employment and income, the self-rated health was the most significant contributing factor to happiness [OR=7.82, 95% CI=5.32-11.48, P<0.0001]

Conclusion: The findings suggest that improving daily living conditions might help to improve happiness among the Iranian population

[Iranian's percpectives about health importance]

Objective[s]: As part of a study on health perception among Iranian people, the importance of health was assessed

Methods: This was a population-based study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate a 5-point scale indicating how value health in their life. The data were analyzed descriptively. In addition logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between independent variables and the importance of health

Results: In all 27,883 individuals took part in the study. The mean age of respondents was 32.7 [SD=11.8] years. The results indicated that 70 percent of the respondents valued the health very or very much important. For there analysis of the data showd that males and females valued the health similarly but age and education had significant contribution to people's perceptions

Conclusion: The findings of this study intoduce a noteworthy outlook of health importance among Iraninas and could be useful in characterizing public cognitions of health and provide essential basis for program development and health related interventions

[People's knowledge on health and life style]

A study of relationship between self-reported knowledge on health and lifestyle. This is a cross-sectional study and the study population is all Iranian aged between 18-65. In this study 27883 cases have been sampled by the multistage sampling method. A questionnaire was used for data gathering that was made and standardized by researchers. The bivariate correlation between self-reported general knowledge on health and three variables for assessing life style consist of nutrition status, Smoking and exercise was meaningful for all variables. The relationship between knowledge and smoking way negative and the other were positive. Trying to promote people's knowledge may increase their health related behavior and life style. In this way strengthening health communication in the Medias and updating existing information can improve people's knowledge. By the way trying to improve health literacy in the community may affect use of existing information and improve people's knowledge on health

People's perspectives and expectations on preparedness against earthquake: Tehran case study

The present study aimed at identifying the methods and appropriate strategies for public awareness and education on preparedness in earthquakes in Tehran metropolis. This was a cross-sectional study. The study was a door-to-door survey of the 22 municipal districts in Tehran and involved a total of 1211 subjects aged 15 and above. People were asked about different methods of public information and education, as well as the types of information needed for earthquake preparedness. The important issues indicated by respondents were supervision on building construction and strengthening of buildings as well as public education. The educational tools and media that were proposed by the respondents included television, radio, posters, educational classes, newspapers and instructional pamphlets regarding earthquakes, video films and internet, respectively. The study has also shown that with the assumption of earthquake occurrence in Tehran, the most important sources for getting immediate information were the general public and TV. 70% of the respondents believed that in case of earthquake prediction, people should be informed by the media. The study findings revealed that information dissemination alone can not result in changing people's perspectives and behaviors. Appropriate methods are needed along with increasing people's understanding and raising their awareness on the earthquake damage in order to encourage them to learn and implement preventive measures. The paper also indicated that mass media have important role in public education and providing people with adequate information about disasters

Iranian health perception survey [IHPS]: the study protocol

This paper aims to document our approach to data collection for a nationwide study on health perception among an Iranian general population using a simple and short questionnaire. This project was developed through group discussions in Iranian Institute for Health Sciences Research. An extensive literature search carried out to provide a simple and short questionnaire to cover topics related to health [physical, mental and social], health-related behaviors, self-reported health, health information, and satisfaction with health care as perceived and rated by the respondents. The intention was to collect data from a random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years living in Iran. Primarily a sample of 24000 individuals from all 30 provinces in Iran was thought. However, the actual sample size obtained was 27883. The plan then was to analyze the data using a descriptive approach locally and nationally. It is hoped that this study would provide basic information for better understanding on how people thinking and how they are behaving about their health. Based on the results obtained we also might be able to establish areas for health interventions and contribute to health policy in Iran

Determinants of satisfaction with health care system: a population-based study from Iran

Satisfaction with health care system is an important indicator of health care delivery effectiveness. It could contribute to both policy and practice. This study aimed to examine Iranians' satisfaction with health care. This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate their overall satisfaction with health care system on a 5-point-likert scale. The record of demographic and socioeconomic data included age, gender, education, marital status, employment, income, and chronic diseases. Logistic regression analysis used to estimate odds ratios to indicate factors contributing to satisfaction with health care system. In all, 27,833 individuals examined in this study. The mean age of respondents was 32.7 [SD=11.8] years old. Overall 20.7% of the respondents were satisfied or very satisfied with the health care delivery system while 36.2% of people indicated low or no satisfaction with health care system. The regression analysis results indicated that income [a proxy measure of access to health care], and information variable were the most significant factors contributing to people's dissatisfaction [OR for lower income=2.17, P<0.0001; OR for people with poor health information=2.01, P<0.001]. The study findings suggest that access to health care and information would lead to improved people's satisfaction with health care system

People's perspectives about the role of physicians and health specialists: Iranian health perception Survey [IHPS]

To identify community views on the role of physicians and health specialists on people's health. This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of 27883 individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Each respondent was asked to indicate the role that health professionals play in the public community health. In all, 45.2% of the respondents indicated that health professionals had very influence in shaping public community health while only 1.8% of people believed [they have no role]. However, about 30% of people indicated a limited role for health professionals. The findings suggest that about one-third of people believe health professional do not have influential role in public health. This might be an indicator of people's access to health care and merits future investigation

Percieved health knowledge among Iranians: a nationwide study

People's knowledge about health is one of the essential requirements for improving health. This study aimed to investigate how people rate their own knowledge about health at population level. This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate their knowledge about health on a 5 point scale. Demografic and socioeconomic data including age, gender, education, marital status, employment, income, chronic diseases and self-reported health were recorded. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios for contributing factors to self-reported knowledge on health. In all 27,883 individuals looks part in the study. The mean age of the respondents was 32.7 years. Most people [48.3%] reported that their knowledge about health was at intermediate level. The result obtained from logistic regression analysis showed that all demographic variables [age, gender, education, marital status, employment and income] and people's health status [having chronic disease and self-reported health] were significant predicting factors of people's perceived knowledge about health. Radio and television were identified as the main information sources. The findings indicated that the perceived health knowledge among Iranians was fair. However it seems that mass media should take more responsibility to improve health knowledge of the general population

Who is responsible for health: Iranian health perception survey [IHPS]

To examine how people thinking and behaving about their health. This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of individuals age 18 to 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate their views on a 5-point scale indicating who is responsible for their own health. The record of demographic and socioeconomic data included age, gender, education, marital status, employment, income and chronic diseases. Logistic regression analysis used to estimate odds ratios for contributing factors to responsibility for health. In all, 27,883 individuals taken part in the study. The means age of the respondents was 33.67 [SD=11.8] years. Overall, 52% of people reported that individuals themselves are responsible for their own health and 14% reported that the state is responsible for public community health. The results of logistic regression analysis showed that males [OR=1.40], low level income groups [OR=1.43], having at least one chronic disease [OR=1.52] were more likely to assign responsibility for health to governance sectors. The findings suggest that most people believe that health is a personal issue that everybody should take care of him or herself

How people rate their own health: a nationwide study from Iran

Little is known about self-reported health in developing countries such as Iran. As part of a large study on health perception in Iran this was investigated. This was a nationwide cross sectional study. A random sample of individuals aged between 18 and 65 years were entered into the study. Respondents were asked to rate their own present health status on a 5-point scale. The record of demographic and socioeconomic data included age, gender, education, marital status, employment, income, place of residence, and chronic diseases. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for indicating of the contributing factors to self-reported health. In all 27,883 individuals were studied. The mean age of respondents was 32.7 [SD = 11.8] years. 71.5% rated their health as good or better than good while the remaining 28.5% indicated their health less than good and poor. The findings showed that in addition to some demographic variables, the most contributing factors to poor self-rated health were: income [OR=2.81 for lower income], and presence of chronic diseases [OR=7.6, 85%CI=6.8-7.5]. Living in smaller towns was found to contribute to a better self-reported health [OR=0.89, P=0.01]. The findings indicated that there were inverse relationships between self-reported health and socioeconomic and ecological factors. The results suggest that social determinants of health play an important role in people's evaluation of their own health status. Policies need to address these concerns